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SIBANYE GOLD LTD

SIBANYE GOLD LTD (SBSW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Bullish Gold 10.81B South Africa
Next Earnings
2026-09-01

Sibanye Stillwater Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Zimbabwe, Canada, and Argentina. The company produces gold; platinum group metals (PGMs), including palladium, platinum, and rhodium; and by-products, such as iridium, ruthenium, nickel, copper, and chrome. It owns the East Boulder and Stillwater mines located in Montana, the United States; and Columbus metallurgical complex, which smelts the material mined to produce PGM-rich filter cake, as well as conducts PGM recycling activities. The company is also involved in the Kroondal, Rustenburg, Marikana, and Platinum Mile operations situated in South Africa; Mimosa located on the southern portion in Zimbabwe; the Driefontein, Kloof, and Cooke surface operations located on the West Rand of the Witwatersrand Basin; and the Beatrix situated in the southern Free State. In addition, it owns an interest in surface tailings retreatment facilities; the Marathon PGM project in Ontario, Canada; the Altar and Rio Grande copper gold projects in the Andes in north-west Argentina; the Hoedspruit; and the Burnstone and southern Free State gold projects in South Africa. Sibanye Stillwater Limited was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Weltevreden Park, South Africa.

Sibanye Stillwater reported a strong 2025 with record EBITDA, a reduced net debt ratio, and a dividend at the top of policy, while advancing simplification, internal growth, and a staged Keliber lithium ramp amid a volatile market.

⭐ Key Highlights

EBITDA milestone
Adjusted EBITDA surged to just under ZAR 38 billion in 2025, up ~189% from prior period guidance and driven by higher commodity prices and portfolio changes.
Debt and dividends
Net debt to adjusted EBITDA fell to 0.59x, and a final dividend of ZAR 131c per share (~2% yield) was declared, at the top end of the policy.
Strategic simplification and growth focus
Boarded strategic refresh centered on simplification, performance excellence, internal growth, and disciplined capital allocation, with internal value creation prioritized.
Keliber lithium project staged ramp
Keliber advanced with a staged ramp-up plan to mitigate lithium market volatility, including Stage 1-5 sequencing and potential refinery decisions depending on market conditions.
Safety and sustainability progress
Fatal incidents remained the #1 priority to eliminate, while renewable energy and water stewardship programs delivered meaningful emissions and cost savings.

✔Positive Signals

  • Adjusted EBITDA nearly triple the prior period
  • Net gearing down to 0.59x and debt reduction trajectory
  • Dividend at top end of policy (131c per share)
  • Renewable energy program delivering tangible cost savings and emissions reductions
  • Keliber lithium project advancing with staged ramp-up and value optionality

✖Negative Signals

  • Six fatalities in 2025 across operations
  • Impairments at Keliber, Kloof, and U.S. PGM assets
  • Appian settlement of USD 215 million ($3.6 billion ZAR) recognized in 2025
  • Higher sustaining capital costs and project-related capital in some regions
  • Kloof mine life adjustments and safety-related output reductions

📊Financial Results

  • Revenue increased 16% year over year
  • Adjusted EBITDA up ~189% to just under ZAR 38 billion
  • Net debt to adjusted EBITDA improved to 0.59x from 1.77x in 2024
  • Headline earnings per share rose 281% to ZAR 244c
  • Impairments and one-off charges (including Appian settlement and Keliber/Kloof impairments) weighed on reported net income

🔮Future Guidance

  • 2026 guidance: SA PGM volumes modestly declined with life-of-mine considerations; SA gold output slightly lower due to Kloof reductions; U.S. PGM volumes to rise modestly with cost-reduction targets toward USD 1,000/oz
  • Keliber guidance: spodumene production of 15,000–20,000 ktonnes in 2026, depending on refinery commissioning decisions; total project capital guidance of EUR 180–190 million for 2026, with roughly half of that already allocated as project capex
  • Century Zinc: last full-year production, with strategic options and potential new opportunities in Australia under review
  • Debt maturation: refinancing of the 2026 $675 million bond targeted before end of H1 2026

💡Interesting Insights

  • Keliber uses a staged ramp approach to reduce lithium market risk, with a clear path to battery-grade product by 2028 if conditions align
  • Strategy emphasizes optimization of existing resources before pursuing external growth, highlighting a disciplined, hurdle-rate driven framework
  • Renewables-driven cost savings target approaching ZAR 1 billion over time, with multiple new plants to come online by 2026–2028

Detailed Analysis

AI-generated summary of SIBANYE GOLD LTD earnings call transcript.

The company completed a noisy but largely stabilizing year, delivering its strongest EBITDA in three years (just under ZAR 38 billion) and substantially improving leverage (net debt/adjusted EBITDA 0.59x). It declared a dividend of ZAR 131c per share, reflecting earnings growth in H2 2025. Management emphasized a strategic refresh built on simplification, performance excellence, and disciplined capital allocation, with a priority on internal value creation from existing resource bases and lower-risk projects. Safety remained paramount, acknowledging six fatalities in 2025 but outlining a clear fatal-elimination program. Keliber lithium progressed with a staged ramp-up to manage market volatility, while renewable energy, water stewardship, and DRDGOLD collaborations underpin longer-term sustainability. 2026 guidance remains constructive but cautious, reflecting ongoing optimization, capital allocation, and price-driven sensitivities across PGM, gold, recycling, and the Keliber program.

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