National Bank of Greece S.A (NBGRY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
National Bank of Greece S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services primarily in Greece, Cyprus, North Macedonia, Romania, Bulgaria, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. It operates through Retail Banking, Corporate & Investment Banking, Trouble Assets Unit, Global Markets and Asset Management, International Banking Operations, and other segments. The Retail Banking segment provides deposit, investment, bancassurance products, mortgage loans, consumer and small business lending, debit and credit cards, prepaid cards, and other traditional products and services for individual customers, professionals, and small-medium and small sized companies through its network of branches and digital businesses. The Corporate & Investment Banking segment offers financial and investment advisory services, deposit accounts, loans, foreign exchange, and trade services for corporate customers; and lending services for large and medium-sized companies, as well as shipping finance services. The Trouble Assets Unit segment manages various non-performing and denounced loans. The Global Markets and Asset Management segment is involved in treasury activities; and asset management, custody, private equity, and brokerage services. The International Banking Operations segment offers traditional commercial banking, such as commercial and retail credit, trade financing, foreign exchange, and deposits; shipping finance; investment banking; and brokerage services through its foreign branches. The Other segment engages in the real estate management and warehousing businesses. The company also provides factoring and insurance brokerage services. National Bank of Greece S.A. was founded in 1841 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.
NBG delivered resilient 2025 results with solid loan growth, improving NII, double-digit fee growth, robust capital, and a multi-year plan targeting higher profitability and shareholder returns.
⭐ Key Highlights
✔Positive Signals
- Profitability beat with €1.3bn PAT and RoTE of 15.5%
- Loan growth of €3.5bn, beating guidance >€2.5bn
- Double-digit growth in fees, including 70% YoY increase in investment product fees
- Strong capital position (CET1 18.8%) and high payout sustainability (€0.77/shr)
- Clear 2026–2028 plan with RoTE 17% in 2028 and EPS >€1.70
✖Negative Signals
- Net interest income down 9% YoY in 2025
- NII in 2026 expected to be modest due to lower average Euribor
- AT1 issuance, while strategic, adds complexity to capital mix
- MREL costs expected to rise over the plan horizon
- Bancassurance partner timing not yet reflected in plan numbers
📊Financial Results
- 2025 profit after tax before one-offs: €1.3bn; EPS €1.38
- NII declined 9% YoY, NIM >280bp, Q4 QoQ improvement signaling NII normalization
- Fee income up 10% YoY; corporate fees +16%, retail investment fees +70% YoY
- Cost-to-income ratio 34%; cost of risk 40bp for 2025
- Core CET1 18.8%; total capital 21.5% (22.7% pro forma for AT1); MREL well above target
🔮Future Guidance
- 2026–2028 plan targets RoTE 17% in 2028 and EPS >€1.70; NII over EUR 2.5bn by 2028
- NII expected to start recovering in 2026, with an average Euribor around 25bp lower in 2026 but rising later; NIM >290bp by 2028
- Credit expansion >€10bn over 3 years; high single-digit fee growth supported by cross-sell
- Operating expenses to grow ~6% CAGR, cost/income around 36% in 2028
- CET1 target below 16% in 2028; ordinary distributions plus €0.3bn potential extra payout in 2026; additional buybacks possible based on capital framework
💡Interesting Insights
- Internal CET1 target conservatively set at 14%, with potential to go below 13.5% if AT1 capacity is fully utilized
- Plan to use capital generation for growth and distributions, balancing with strategic optionality
Detailed Analysis
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