Lineage Inc (LINE) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Neutral REIT - Industrial 8.74B USA
Next Earnings
2026-04-28
Lineage, Inc. engages in the provision of temperature-controlled warehouse real estate investment trust (REIT). It operates through the Global Warehousing and Global Integrated Solutions segments. The Global Warehousing segment composes of industrial real estate properties to provide temperature-controlled warehousing services to its customers. The Global Integrated Solutions segment consists of specialized cold-chain services. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Novi, MI.
Lineage guided 2026 to negative 4% to negative 1% same-store NOI, $1.25–$1.30B adjusted EBITDA, and $2.75–$3.00 AFFO per share, while advancing cost controls and development to drive future leverage and cash flow.
⭐ Key Highlights
Q4 revenue and EBITDA
Q4 revenue flat YoY with adjusted EBITDA down 2% to $327M; AFFO $214M and $0.83 per share, flat to prior year but ahead of guidance.
Occupancy and demand signals
Same-store physical occupancy improved 400 bps to 79.3% in Q4; economic occupancy trend tracks occupancy with a stable spread, signaling a return toward normalized seasonality.
GIS and segment performance
GIS delivered 15% NOI growth in Q4 and ~10% for 2025; GIS EBITDA for the year rose 9% to $251M, with Q4 NOI margin improving 470 bps to 19.5%.
Development and capital allocation
Invested $170M in growth capex in Q4; 24 facilities under development with >$1B invested capex and potential >$150B of incremental EBITDA once stabilized.
Capital structure and buyback of value
Entered 2026 with strong liquidity ($1.9B), issued Eurobonds and swapped debt to lock in favorable rates; management stressed capital-structure initiatives to bridge private/public valuation gap.
✔Positive Signals
- Q4 AFFO per share of $0.83 and full-year AFFO per share up 2.4% vs. prior year, beating expectations
- GIS NOI growth of 15% in Q4 and ~10% for 2025, with margin expansion
- Strong occupancy stabilization and 400 bps sequential improvement in utilization
- Accelerated cost savings plan targeting $50M of annualized admin/indirect savings by end of 2026
- Significant development pipeline (24 facilities) with potential >$150B of incremental EBITDA once stabilized
✖Negative Signals
- Total warehouse NOI declined 2.3–3.3% for the year; same-store NOI down ~5.8%
- Throughput volumes declined ~2.8% YoY, with services revenue per throughput pallet down 70 bps
- Negative same-store NOI growth guidance for 2026 (-4% to -1%), signaling ongoing pressure in core portfolio
- Seasonal headwinds from import/export volumes and tariff environment weigh on GIS and warehouse results
- Higher fuel costs and modal shifts pressure 2026 GIS revenue despite 1–2% net pricing
📊Financial Results
- Q4 total revenue flat YoY; adjusted EBITDA $327M, down 2% YoY
- Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA $1.30B, down 2.3% YoY; AFFO per share $3.37, up 2.4% YoY
- Q4 warehouse NOI $373M, down 2.4% YoY; full-year warehouse NOI $1.48B, down 3.3%
- GIS EBITDA Q4 $61M, up 15% QoQ; full-year GIS EBITDA $251M, up 9% YoY
- Net debt at Q4 end: $7.7B; liquidity $1.9B; net debt/adjusted EBITDA 6.0x (5.2x on an adjusted basis for development and acquisitions)
🔮Future Guidance
- 2026 guidance: same-store NOI down 4% to down 1%; total warehouse NOI down 2% to up 1%; GIS NOI flat to up 2%
- Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $1.25B to $1.30B; AFFO per share guidance: $2.75 to $3.00
- Admin expense guidance: $465M to $480M; recurring CapEx: $170.18M
- Ongoing cost-savings runway: $50M annualized savings by year-end 2026 (roughly half realized in 2026)
- Expect occupancy to start 2026 at the lower end of the range with improving trend into the second half; higher inflation containment via productivity and LinnOS
💡Interesting Insights
- AI and automation are positioned as a differentiator; Lineage emphasizes insulated demand due to durable cold storage assets, with Lineage Eye and LinnOS driving operating leverage and productivity despite macro headwinds.
Detailed Analysis
AI-generated summary of Lineage Inc earnings call transcript.
Lineage reported flat Q4 revenue with a slight decline in adjusted EBITDA and AFFO per share essentially flat, as occupancy stabilized and GIS delivered solid NOI growth. The company highlighted ongoing efficiency programs, including a plan to realize $50M of annualized admin/indirect cost savings by year-end 2026, and continued development capital that is expected to lift EBITDA meaningfully once stabilized. Management remains cautious on near-term pricing and macro headwinds (tariffs and fuel costs) but sees a favorable long-term trajectory as new supply slows, demand stabilizes in most markets, and its end-to-end global storage solutions and AI-enabled operations drive productivity. The 2026 guidance assumes modest net pricing of 1–2% in warehousing, a continued occupancy ramp, and acceleration of efficiency initiatives, with a gradual improvement into the second half of the year.
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