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Coca-Cola FEMSA S.A.B. de C.V (KOFUBL.MX) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Neutral Beverages - Non-Alcoholic 20.63B Mexico

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademark beverages in Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. The company offers sparkling beverages, including colas and flavored sparkling beverages; waters; and other non-carbonated beverages, such as tea, sports drinks, energy drinks, fruit-based beverages, juice, coffee, milk, value-added dairy, and plant-based drinks. It also distributes and sells beer products under the Heineken, Estrella Galicia, and Therezópolis brands, as well as Campari alcoholic beverages, Perfetti confectionary and chewing gum, and Monster products. The company sells its products to distributors, retail outlets, wholesale supermarkets, discount and convenience stores, retailers, points-of-sale outlets, restaurants and bars, stadiums, auditoriums, theaters, and home deliveries. Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

Coca-Cola FEMSA delivered modest 2025 growth with resilience in margins, accelerated digital initiatives, and disciplined capital allocation, while guiding 2026 to flat-to-positive volumes amid Mexico IEPS headwinds and Brazil tailwinds.

Key Highlights

Solid Q4 and full-year results
Q4 volume +1.3%, revenues +2.9% (currency-neutral +6%), gross margin down 60 bps, operating income up 13.3% and adjusted EBITDA up 12.8% including insurance recoveries.
Mexico: price management and Coke Zero momentum
Mexico benefited from price-pack adjustments and affordability initiatives; Coke Zero grew 14% in volume, with stills up 7.4% y/y and 100k new cooler doors planned by 2026.
Brazil: record December and strong digital enablement
Brazil posted the strongest December on record; Sprite Zero +93% y/y, Coke Zero +44%, digital enablers (Juntos+) expanded MAUs and efficiency, supporting share gains.
World Cup and policy tailwinds
World Cup hosting in Mexico and Brazil and FIFA-related activations are expected to boost brand engagement, consumption occasions, and near-term volumes.
Guidance for 2026 and capex discipline
2026 guidance: Mexico volumes down low-to-mid single digits; Brazil volumes up low-to-mid single digits; consolidated volume flat to slightly positive; CapEx targeted at 7%–7.5% of revenues.
Capital markets and sustainability momentum
Bond issuance of MXN 10 billion priced with two-tenor structure; S&P/Moodys ratings support; sustainability scores hit all-time highs, reinforcing long-term value framework.

Positive Signals

  • Coke Zero momentum in Mexico (14% volume growth) and robust performance in flavors
  • Brazil: Sprite Zero growth (93%), Coke Zero 44%, record December volumes
  • Juntos+ Advisor rollout improving sales force efficiency and share in multiple markets
  • World Cup sponsorship and activations expected to lift brand engagement and consumption occasions
  • Strong sustainability accolades (S&P Global, FTSE4Good, MSCI) underpinning long-term value creation

Negative Signals

  • IEPS excise tax impact in Mexico pressure on gross margins and near-term pricing decisions
  • Currency mix effects and hedging costs contributing to margin headwinds
  • Higher depreciation and labor costs pressuring operating margins in Q4
  • Working capital volatility linked to ERP SAP/4HANA rollout causing cash flow fluctuations

📊Financial Results

  • Q4 revenue grew 2.9% YoY to MXN 77.7 billion; currency-neutral growth 6%
  • Gross profit grew 1.8% to MXN 36.3 billion; gross margin down 60 bps to 46.7%
  • Operating income rose 13.3% to MXN 13.7 billion; operating margin +160 bps to 17.6% (normalized margin 16.1% if insurance effects excluded)
  • Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter up 12.8% to MXN 18.2 billion; EBITDA margin +210 bps to 23.4% (normalized EBITDA margin 21.9% up 30 bps)
  • Net majority income up 3% to MXN 7.5 billion; impact from higher financing costs and tax regime

🔮Future Guidance

  • 2026 Mexico: low-to-mid single-digit volume decline due to IEPS impact; pricing and RGM to mitigate margin pressure
  • 2026 Brazil: low-to-mid single-digit volume growth; continued leverage of digital tools and portfolio shifts
  • Consolidated 2026: flat to slightly positive volume with stabilization of cash flow as ERP working capital normalization completes
  • Capex guidance: 7%–7.5% of revenues, with phasing adjustments in Mexico and Brazil to reflect plant closures and capacity needs

💡Interesting Insights

  • AI-enabled platforms (Juntos+ Advisor) are now scaled in multiple markets, directly linking digital tools to higher average ticket and share gains
  • Management sees 2027 as a potential need for a new Brazil plant due to potential future tax changes, guiding a longer horizon capex plan

Detailed Analysis

AI-generated summary of Coca-Cola FEMSA S.A.B. de C.V earnings call transcript.

Coca-Cola FEMSA reported resilient 2025 results with volume growth in most markets and margin expansion on an adjusted basis, aided by revenue-management actions and insurance recoveries. Mexico faced a soft consumer environment and a significant IEPS tax increase, prompting price adjustments and cost discipline, with Coke Zero driving notable growth. Brazil delivered standout performance, including record December volumes, strong noncaloric mix shifts, and digital tools (Juntos+ Advisor) boosting efficiency and share. Across South America, insurance recoveries and capacity investments supported EBITDA gains, while cash flow dynamics were affected by working capital movements tied to ERP rollouts, now expected to normalize in 2026. For 2026, management targets low-to-mid single-digit declines in Mexico, low-to-mid single-digit gains in Brazil, and a consolidated volume range that is flat to modestly positive, with CapEx anchored at roughly 7%–7.5% of revenues. Additionally, the company highlighted FIFA World Cup opportunities and ongoing emphasis on AI-enabled revenue-management tools and a strong sustainability framework, as evidenced by top ESG rankings.

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